MOSCOW DRONE ATTACKS ARE ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE, NOT CAUSING SERIOUS DAMAGE

Ukraine could be using drones as part of a “psychological” offensive against Russia rather than to cause serious damage or casualties, a defence expert has said.

Such a tactic would mean Kyiv is retaliating with a trick out of Moscow’s own playbook, according to Justin Crump, a military veteran and chief executive of intelligence risk firm Sibylline.

Drones are best regarded as “missiles or expendable ordnances” in the conflict, he said, adding: “Russia highlighted this path with the Iranian drones and, of course, is now somewhat reaping the whirlwind in return, at least psychologically, even if the actual damage from Ukrainian attacks is a fraction of what Moscow is currently trying to let loose on Kyiv.”

Mr Crump said Ukraine’s use of drones is likely to be an effort to distract Russia or catch their soldiers off-guard, rather than to cause damage.

It comes after Russian officials said eight drones aiming for Moscow were stopped on Tuesday in what it called a “terrorist attack” from the “Kyiv regime”.

Sergei Sobyanin, the Mayor of Moscow, said the attack caused “insignificant damage” to several buildings, with two people receiving medical attention for unspecified injuries.

Ukraine has not made any immediate comment. If it is behind the attack, it would be one of the deepest and most daring strikes into Russia since the full-scale conflict began in February 2022.

How many drones does Ukraine have?

It is unclear how many drones Ukraine has to deploy in the conflict.

The UK has pledged hundreds of long-range attack drones while the US has sent its Switchblade drones.

The Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a leading defence and security think tank, estimates the nation could be losing up to 10,000 unmanned aerial vehicles a month – but many are likely to be inexpensive.

Dr Marina Miron, an honorary research fellow in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London, said: “From the very onset of the war, Ukraine realised that drones offer its Armed Forces an asymmetric advantage. And by that, I mean specifically smaller drones that can be used for surveillance behind enemy lines or to guide artillery fire as well as used as ‘kamikaze’ drones.

“Thus, the Ukrainian domestic manufacturers switched their production from civilian to military drones. Many civilian drones have also been adapted for military use.”

Dr James Patton Rogers, a drone expert at the University of South Denmark and Cornell University in the US, added that Ukraine has bolstered its production of locally produced drones “especially longer-range armed drones that can be used for deep precision strikes into Russia”.

“This has been a deliberate and calculated move by Ukraine to respond to the hundreds of strikes Russia has launched against Ukrainian cities and civilians.”

Dr Rogers said Ukraine has so far only targeted key military, industrial and energy sites, adding: “But if the recent strikes on Moscow are confirmed to come from Ukraine – which we are still unsure about – this would mark a change in strategy towards city bombing.

“Such a shift will prove counterproductive for Ukraine in terms of public opinion and strategic effectiveness. No one wins from bombing cities and civilians.”

Which drones has Ukraine used in the war?

With the top military drones, such as the Reaper or the Bayraktar TB2, an easy target for air defence forces, both Russia and Ukraine have been using lighter and smaller designs for one-way missions, according to Mr Crump.

“Their radar signatures are hard to spot due to slow speed, poor returns due to materials used, low altitudes and route selection. Guidance remains an issue due to jamming of satellite signals, and fitting cameras and communication systems to allow for re-tasking or visual guidance adds a huge amount of cost – also coming at the expense of explosive payload.”

Mr Crump said Ukraine has also repurposed former Soviet drones and used propeller-powered designs.

It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will claim responsibility for the drone attack on Moscow.

But it has left defence experts like Valeriy Akimenko, a senior research analyst at the Conflict Studies Research Centre, “mystified”.

“Not that Ukraine lacks the wherewithal to mount such an attack, as it has done against Russia’s strategic bomber bases. The technical question is what it used.”

He suggests the drones could have come from Ukraine’s Soviet stock, highlighting that the reconnaisance drone, the TU-141 Strizh, has the range. Alternatively he points to the UK’s recent promise of long-range drones, which have a reach of more than 200km.

What do we know about Ukraine’s offensive?

Mr Crump said Ukraine has been embarking on increased operations inside Russia by “comparatively deniable means”.

“This includes largely respecting the sensitivities of nations donating military equipment.

“Ukraine could be doing much more than it is, were it not for this factor. Sabotage, infiltration and drone operations will therefore continue across the border, both to bring the cost of the war further home to the Russian population, and keep Russia’s defences spread out and off-guard, distracting decision-making and helping create opportunities for Kyiv to exploit.

“The key achievement of these will be the geographic spread and symbiology of targets, rather than damage, with the aim being to have political impacts that ultimately help shape the operational environment.”

2023-05-30T17:30:20Z dg43tfdfdgfd